Objectives: To investigate the clinicopathological characteristics of patients with hormone receptor (HR)-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative metastatic breast cancer who experienced early progression during first-line CDK4/6 inhibitor therapy and to identify factors associated with ultra-early progression. Methods: This retrospective, single-center study included patients with radiologically confirmed disease progression within 6 months of first-line CDK4/6 inhibitor-based therapy between 2020 and 2025. Patients progressing within 3 months were classified as ultra-early progressors, whereas those progressing between 3 and 6 months served as the reference group. Clinicopathological features, treatment characteristics, and survival outcomes were analyzed. Logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with ultra-early progression. Results: Among 418 treated patients, 55 (13.2%) developed early progression; 26 (47.3%) progressed within 3 months and 29 (52.7%) between 3 and 6 months. Liver metastasis was significantly more common in ultra-early progressors (57.7% vs. 31.0%, p=0.047) and showed a trend toward an independent association with ultra-early progression (OR 3.05, 95% CI 0.99–9.44, p=0.053). No significant association was observed between MCV changes or progression timing and overall survival. Conclusion: Liver metastasis may identify patients at increased risk of ultra-early progression during first-line CDK4/6 inhibitor therapy and may facilitate early risk stratification. Keywords: CDK4/6 inhibitors, Early progression, Metastatic breast cancer
Corresponding Author: Okan Aydın